XAU / USD — Live Price
LIVE
$4091.60
$-92.90
(-2.22%)
Support
$4050
— now —
Resistance
$4100
Macro Indicators EOD DATA
DXY EOD
iUS Dollar IndexMeasures USD strength against 6 major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF).Gold is priced in USD — when DXY falls, gold becomes cheaper for foreign buyers, pushing price up. Inverse relationship.
120.08
+0.60% 1D
Bearish gold
10Y Yield EOD
iUS 10-Year Treasury YieldThe return on 10-year US government bonds — the global risk-free rate benchmark.Rising yields increase the cost of holding gold (gold pays no yield). Falling yields make gold more attractive vs bonds. Strong inverse relationship.
4.530%
-3.0bps
Softening — Supportive
Silver XAG EOD
iSilver Price (XAG/USD)Silver is a precious and industrial metal, sister asset to gold.Silver and gold typically move together. When both rise = trend confirmed. When they diverge = possible reversal signal. Watch the Gold/Silver Ratio.
$64.11
-0.75% 1D
Confirming
Gold/Silver Ratio
iGold / Silver RatioHow many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold.Above 80 = gold historically expensive vs silver. Above 90 = extreme. Often mean-reverts. A high ratio can signal gold is overbought or silver is due for a catch-up rally.
63.8
XAU ÷ XAG
Normal
VIX — Fear Index
iCBOE Volatility IndexMeasures expected market volatility based on S&P 500 options. Known as the "fear gauge".VIX above 20 = fear = investors buy gold as safe haven. VIX below 15 = complacency = less demand for gold protection. Positive relationship with gold.
21.7
-2.48% 1D
Elevated ↑ Gold
S&P 500 EOD
iS&P 500 IndexTracks the 500 largest US companies. Primary benchmark for US equity markets.Generally inverse to gold. S&P falling (risk-off) drives money into gold as a safe haven. Both can rise together during inflationary periods.
7,316
+0.67% 1D
Risk-On ↓ Gold
India 10Y G-Sec EOD
iIndia 10-Year Government Bond YieldThe return on 10-year Indian government bonds. Key benchmark for RBI policy stance and FII bond flows.When India-US 10Y spread narrows, FII money exits Indian bonds → INR weakens → MCX gold goes up in rupee terms even if COMEX is flat. Watch this alongside US 10Y.
6.840%
+7.0bps
Normal Range
WTI Crude EOD
iWTI Crude OilWest Texas Intermediate — benchmark price for US crude oil.Both gold and oil are real assets. Rising oil = rising inflation expectations = bullish gold. Oil shocks often trigger safe-haven gold buying. Not always correlated but worth watching.
$89.41
-0.69% 1D
Neutral
INR/USD EOD
iIndian Rupee / US DollarHow many rupees buy one US dollar. The single most important number for MCX traders.MCX Gold price = COMEX price × USD/INR. When INR weakens (USD/INR rises), MCX gold goes up even if COMEX is flat. Always check INR direction before trading MCX.
₹95.79
+0.45% 1D
INR Weak ↑ MCX
⚔️ The Macro War Room
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Real Yield (DFII10)
i10Y TIPS Real YieldThe #1 gold driver — this is what institutional traders watch.Negative or falling real yields = holding gold has no opportunity cost. Rising real yields above 1.5–2% = gold headwind. Source: FRED DFII10 (Federal Reserve).
+2.20%
-1bps · 2026-06-09
High Real Yield — Go
Breakeven Inflation
i10Y Breakeven (T10YIE)Market's expected inflation over 10 years.High breakeven (>2.5%) = market pricing inflation = gold inflation hedge bid strengthens. Low breakeven = disinflation = gold loses inflation-hedge premium. Source: FRED T10YIE.
2.34%
Expected 10Y inflation · 2026-06-10
Near Fed Target
Yield Curve (T10Y2Y)
i10Y minus 2Y SpreadShape of the US yield curve.Inverted (negative) = recession signal = gold bullish via risk-off. Steep (>50bps) = growth = risk-on. Flat = transition. Source: FRED T10Y2Y.
+42bps
10Y − 2Y spread · 2026-06-10
Flat — Caution
Broad USD (DTWEXBGS)
iBroad Trade-Weighted USDUSD vs 26 currencies (26x more comprehensive than DXY).DXY is 57% EUR-heavy. This index includes CNY, INR, MXN and 23 others — far more representative of actual dollar strength. Source: FRED DTWEXBGS (weekly).
120.08
+0.60% · 2026-06-05
USD Strengthening —
🇮🇳 India vs USA Macro
EOD · MCX Trading Intelligence
🇺🇸 US 10Y Yield
4.530%
-3.0bps
Softening — Supportive
🇮🇳 India 10Y G-Sec
6.840%
+7.0bps
Normal Range
India–US Spread
+2.31%
India 10Y minus US 10Y
Carry Attractive
₹ INR/USD Rate
₹95.79
+0.45% 1D
INR Weak ↑ MCX
🇮🇳 India CPI YoY
3.0%
Target: 4.0% | Gap: -1.0%
Below Target
RBI Repo Rate
6.00%
MPC rate — bi-monthly
Known Value
Real Policy Rate
iReal Policy RateRBI Repo minus India CPI. When real rate is high (>2.5%), RBI has room to cut — easing cycle supports INR softening over time.
3.00%
Repo − CPI
Restrictive
India Yield Curve
iIndia 10Y–2Y SpreadSteepening = growth/credit expansion = risk-on = mild gold headwind. Inverted = recession fear = gold bullish. Flat = transition zone.
No 2Y data
India 2Y unavailable
RBI RATE PROBABILITY ENGINE — Next MPC Meeting
Bias: Cut
• CPI 3.0% well below 4% target — strong easing case.• Real rate 3.0% is moderately restrictive.
→ RBI cutting → INR softens over time → MCX gold structurally bid above COMEX.
Key Price Levels
PDH — Prev Day High
$4284.90
PDL — Prev Day Low
$4113.40
PWH — Prev Week High
$4541.40
PWL — Prev Week Low
$4319.10
PMH — Prev Month High
$4765.20
PML — Prev Month Low
$4363.50
ATH — All Time High
$5586.20
Trading Sessions (IST)
Asian
06:30 – 14:30 IST
London
14:30 – 18:30 IST
NY Open
19:30 – 23:30 IST
NY Close
23:30 – 01:30 IST
NY Open in 0h 2m
Economic Calendar — USD High Impact
18:00 IST
Core PPI m/m
Exp: 0.5%
Prev: 1.0%
18:00 IST
PPI m/m
Exp: 0.7%
Prev: 1.4%
COT — Speculative Positioning WEEKLY
+176,020
net long contracts
Large Spec Longs
206,096
Large Spec Shorts
30,076
Net Change (WoW)
+21,760
Report Date
2026-06-02
Longs Increasing
My Trade Bias — Gold XAU
Macro Regime
Risk-Off
Fear-driven safe-haven demand — gold is the flight target
40%
confidence
Bullish Drivers
10Y Yield
Softening -3.0bps
VIX
Elevated 21.7
Calendar
Clear 3h window
Bearish Drivers
DXY
Rising +0.60%
Price Action
Below PDL $4113
Real Yield (DFII10)
+2.20% (Headwind)
⚠ Invalidation Conditions
VIX drops below 15 — complacency removes the fear bid
DXY surges above 104 — safe-haven flows shift from gold to USD
S&P rallies >1.5% — risk appetite returns, premium collapses
DXY
−1
Rising +0.60%
10Y Yield
+1
Softening -3.0bps
VIX
+1
Elevated 21.7
Calendar
+1
Clear 3h window
Price
−1
Below PDL $4113
COT
+1
Net +176,020
Real Yield
−1
DFII10 +2.20%
Breakeven (T10YIE)
0
2.34%
Yield Curve
0
Flat +42bps
Total
+1 Bullish
Bullish — exercise caution & manage risk
Look at the macro indicators and COT data — what is your read for today?
Log your bias daily. Mark outcomes to track your accuracy over time.
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